The purpose of this blog is to help Australians understand the massive geopolitical changes that are taking place in the world today. Our media says almost nothing about what is really going on, but these events will certainly have a profound effect on Australia in the next few years.
AUSTRALIA IS NOT AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY
How many people realize that Australia is a colony of the USA? To use Cold War terms, it is a satellite of the USA as certainly as Poland was a satellite of the USSR. The USA is clearly the most influential country in the world today. It has complete control of the UK and the EU, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. It has over 1000 military bases all over the world, and many here in Australia. Our military ties with the USA are so close that Australian forces are simply auxiliaries to the US military and intelligence community. We have no real political or military independence. The Abbott government stands with the US on virtually every issue.
WHO CARES? AUSTRALIA IS DOING OK
Why is this a problem? There is an immediate problem which gets virtually no attention. Since Australia is just the South East Asian arm of the US military, we are being drawn into an increasingly hostile position with respect to China. The US "Pivot to Asia" is nothing but a preparation for war with what they see as the growing "threat" of China. At the same time, China is Australia's major trading partner. If the US/Australia goes to war with China our economy would be finished.
As if this is not a big enough problem, there are huge economic changes taking place which are almost never discussed in the mainstream media. The economies of the West and most of the world are under the control of giant banks based in the USA, the UK and the EU. They dictate economic policies - like the austerity of the Abbott government - and manipulate the markets for currencies, energy prices, commodities, interest rates, gold and silver. They are completely unregulated. Further since the USA has a huge debt and just prints more and more money, it is quite likely that there will be another financial crash like the one in 2008 - but much worse. The problem is that the big banks have made huge loans, but have almost no assets behind them. If a few loans cannot be repaid, their liabilities will be greater then their assets and they will be bankrupt. If these banks go under, the US dollar would be worthless. Who would then pay the US military?
THERE IS AN ECONOMIC RIVAL TO THE WEST
However this is only half of the problem for Australia. In the last few years several nations have joined together in a organization known as the BRICS. BRICS is the acronym for an association of five major emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Theses countries have banded together because they found that the control of their economies by the big banks, the IMF and the World Bank was not in their interest. They see these as Western institutions working only for the West. Instead they want a more egalitarian and cooperative economic framework to improve their economies in the way they want, rather than in the way which benefits the West.
With the increasing hostility of the US toward both Russia and China, last year they decided on a complex plan to integrate their two economies. This will also allow them to become independent of the US dollar based economy and loans of US dollars for development. Russia has energy resources and abundant raw materials needed by China, as well as advanced military and industrial equipment. China can undertake huge infrastructure projects like railroads and harbours. Also they manufacture consumer goods needed by Russia and together they have large money assets (rather than debt like the West) and gold to back up their currencies. The BRICS, led by Russia and China, have just set up their own development bank to replace loans to BRICS countries from the Western banks. They also want to develop their trade independently of the US dollar.
This may not sound like much, but in the end it will mean that BRICS countries and others DO NOT NEED WESTERN LOANS OR US DOLLARS. Odd as it may sound, much of the power wielded by the US comes from the fact that so far virtually all countries have needed to buy US dollars to trade with each other. If much of world trade between the rapidly growing nations in the BRICS does not need dollars, then the value of the US dollar will fall and so will US economic and political power.
THE USA IS FIGHTING BACK - WITH AUSTRALIA'S SUPPORT
It should be no surprise that the US is not sitting by doing nothing while this process goes on. This is the real reason behind the coup in the Ukraine and the warlike rhetoric from the US and the EU against Russia. There are two different strategies used by the US in attacking Russia. One is to provoke a war with Russia so the EU will break all ties with it. The goal here is to stop the natural integration of Europe into the new Eurasian Economic Sphere created by Russia, China and several other Eurasian countries. The US wants to force countries like Germany to break off their profitable economic ties with Russia so they and other EU countries will remain under US control. (If you ask how this is possible, I will ask you why Australia follows US policies without any regard to its economic interest, as in relation to China.) China speaks of a New Silk Road stretching from Shanghai to Lisbon. The US wants to stop this at all costs.
The second US strategy is to create economic problems for Russia by introducing a range of sanctions. Their plan is to create unrest in Russia itself which can be used by anti-Putin elements in Russia to remove him from office. They want to change his policy of making Russia economically independent of the West. There are significant elements of the ruling class in Russia that want to join with the West. They oppose Putin's 15 year policy of slowly making Russia independent of Western control.
IF THE US EMPIRE FALLS, WHAT HAPPENS TO AUSTRALIA?
It is not clear to me that either of these strategies will be successful. Further, the banking system in the West is just waiting for another economic shock worse than the Great Depression of 1929. Nobody in the political elite, the military and security organizations, or anyone in the wider public is thinking about these issues in Australia. It is quite likely that the USA could be finished as a world military and economic power in the next few years. Further, the giant US and EU banks could be bankrupt or much smaller. We would then be in a MULTI-CENTRIC WORLD ORDER, with no one great power. Instead there would be regional powers like the US, Brazil, Germany, Russia, India, South Africa, China, Japan, etc.
Under these conditions, I believe that the WORST POSSIBLE OUTCOME FOR AUSTRALIA is that it somehow continue to be a colony of a weaker USA. To me the best outcome would be for Australia to join together with Indonesia and Malaysia to form a counter-balance against China and India. Both Indonesia and Malaysia fear being dominated by China, and I think most Australians would feel the same.
WHY WRITE THIS BLOG?
My purpose in putting together this blog is to illustrate these issues as they appear in a week by week basis. Australians need to recognize that our future as a European/US colony is almost finished. Europe and the US will not longer dominate the whole world. Thus Australia cannot continue thinking of itself as the US Deputy Sheriff in South East Asia. For better or worse we will be on our own. However THIS DOES NOT NEED TO BE A DISASTER. It is only a disaster for those who cannot think of Australia as anything but a European colony or Outpost of the West. People who think like might decide instead to have Australia become a Chinese colony, continuing their colonial mentality into the future.
We have one colossal problem. We are a colony that does not understand it is a colony. Such blindness can only produce dangerous and nasty policies that will make the Abbott government look like the Golden Age of Australia. We need to start thinking about our future in a new way. We need to think about the future of Australia as a truly independent country.