australianvoice (australianvoice) wrote,

Speculations on the Politics of the Coronavirus in the People's Republic of China

This is a Guest Blog by Denis Churilov

A Few Thoughts on the Current Coronavirus Outbreak

I’m not really sure whether it’s true or not, but some people who monitor China are saying that local Wuhan city and Hubei province authorities shut down the transportation routes and put the city under strict quarantine without really discussing it with the Central Committee of the Communist Party. They did it on their own, apparently.

Hubei province is a large transportation hub that plays a vital role in connecting different regions of China through railroad services and highways. Lots of traded goods normally go through there. Wuhan, by the way, is the 5th or the 6th largest city in the People’s Republic of China, located in the central part of the country, and it has a huge strategic and economic significance.

And to imagine that local authorities would order to shut everything down and quarantine the entire megapolis without coordinating it with the central government is rather strange, especially considering the fact that it happened when there were only, like, 6-12 registered death cases by then (maybe they knew something that we don’t? who knows).

Imagine shutting down all the airports and all the train stations in Melbourne, or New York City, with all the adjacent suburbs and major metropolitan areas, because of a dozen elderly people who died from some flu-like virus. No-one would allow that.

It’s quite interesting that the World Health Organisation, form the very beginning, had been very reluctant to declare global public heath emergency, and it only did so recently.

Further, president Xi Jinping only called an emergency government meeting on the 25th of January, weeks after Wuhan was officially quarantined, which further supports the assertion that the decision to cut one of the China’s most strategic trade/transportation hubs was made without his involvement.

Many of you might have heard that in November last year, in Davos, Switzerland, there was an exercise simulation codenamed “Event 201”, carried out jointly by the Johns Hopkins Centre for Health Security, World Economic Forum, and Bill & Melinda Gates foundation. The purpose of the simulation was to predict developments in case of a hypothetical deadly disease outbreak and to design strategies to isolate the spread of pathogen, as well as to minimise the impact on the global economy.
Also, what fewer people noticed is that, in early December last year, about three weeks before the reports of the new coronavirus began to surface, Xi and the high ranking members of the Politburo were discussing measures to boost national emergency management...

The new coronavirus outbreak happened right before the Lunar New Year, an annual event that causes World’s largest inner migration flows, with large masses of East-Asian people visiting relatives, going on holidays, and such.
And, again, the measures taken by the local authorities in Hubei province to limit the spread of the virus have been unprecedented. The levels of alertness have been truly impressive. Nothing like this has ever happened in recent Chinese history.

It could be safely assumed that the Chinese authorities have learned from the past cases of epidemic spread, and that the emergency response protocols have been strengthened, in part due to Xi’s plea to improve them in December 2019, as well as due to the international simulations carried out in Switzerland a few months prior, which were taken into consideration by the Chinese authorities, hence the response could be interpreted by some as “overreaction”.

We can also safely assume that both the “Event 201” simulation and Xi’s December 2019 emergency services plea are two completely unrelated events, and that all the other factors, such as virus outbreak happening right before the Lunar New Year, are just a series of tragic coincidences. It could as well be a coincidence, we can’t tell at this stage.

However, if we assume that it’s not all a conscience, then we can speculate that something is rotten in the state of Denmark... I mean the People’s Republic of China.

It’s not a big secret that there are multiple powerful factions and cliques within the Chinese elites who have been fighting for power over decades. Like, there is Shanghai clique (Jiang Zemin was a prominent member), different power groups in Beijing, the elites of Guangdong province, which is a major international trade hub with multiple sea ports - the part of China which is heavily dependent of international trade (they trade with Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, the United States, and are generally integrated into the global economic system). There are many powerful groups within the Communist Party who have been suffering a lot due to the Sino-American trade wars, and who oppose Xi Jinping’s efforts to develop domestic markets and to make China economically self-sufficient, thus annulling the importance of international trade in many sectors, where some people have been making billions over the years.

Taking all of that into consideration, it wouldn’t be completely unreasonable to assume that there are some serious domestic, inter-regional power games happening in China right now, with some factions actively trying to destabilise the political situation within the PRC (perhaps even in collaboration with foreign powers) in order to undermine Xi and the people who stand behind him.

That may, in part, explain, the apparent overreaction to the coronavirus (which might have been artificially released, either by Chinese themselves or in coordination with their Western partners from Washington and Davos), the quarantine measures, the panic inducing media hysteria, the shutting down of strategic transportation routes, and such - all of that could serve to sow distrust in the central government and to boost the protest moods and movements inside China, as well as to, perhaps, cut Xi and his clique from certain financial and administrative resources, and to demonstrate to him that he doesn’t fully control the situation.

Those people are far from being stupid, they usually have enough power, connections and cunningness to be able to weave complex plots and conspire on international level to achieve their goals.

Also, add to this this fact that the school and University holidays have now been extended, so all these young Chinese students will have more free time to walk around, make videos and post social media entries about how bad everything is, how there’s shortage of food, how the government doesn’t do anything (or, on the contrary, how it takes away their freedom). There will be more unverifiable reports going around on social media about government hiding something, saying that the real death toll is in the millions, and so on. Many people seek sensationalism.

They are going to wind up each other with rumours and exaggerations to the point when it becomes easier to organise them into coherent protest movements for a regime change. It just happens that young University students are often very energetic, they have lots of free time, and they are very susceptible to “Western propaganda” that consists of platitudes about “freedom” and “democracy”, hence they have been used as key tools in destabilising systems with mass-protests in various regime change operations all around the world, ranging from “Euromaidan” riots in Ukraine to the infamous “Arab Spring” events - none of that ever ends up good.

So it’s quite possible that someone is brewing another Tienanmen Square Protests to oust Xi’s clique in order to take his place, sacrificing lots of regular people in the process and, potentially, starting disintegration processes in China that will most likely lead to a civil war with death tolls measured in millions (note that what is happening now is happening with the global economic recession getting worse and worse in the background). And coronavirus is just a convenient excuse to inconvenience the public economically and to spread the panic in order to stimulate the protest movements. Whether or not the disease outbreak happened naturally or was released on purpose (with the virus being bio-engineered; both Chinese and Western intelligence agencies have resources to do so) is of little importance in such case.

Of course, all of what I have written above is nothing but theories and speculations, so please don’t take it too seriously.

And for those of you who would like the possibility of events developing in such a way (there are many openly and secretly xenophobic people who dislike Chinese beyond the criticism of their government, indulging in secret fantasies about some disaster killing off hundreds of millions of Asians) - I wouldn’t be that enthusiastic if I were you. If shit really hits the fan, and the Chinese government begins to fall, with different regions engaging each other in a full-scale civil war with multi-million death tolls, the global waves of disastrous economic resonance will hit you and your families much harder than any viral pandemic, whether natural or engineered.
Tags: all, archive, usa vs russia/china

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